The downward trend of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly due to the
following reasons:
Weak demand. In 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles increased
significantly, driving the demand for lithium carbonate. However, after entering
2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, and the
demand for lithium carbonate has also weakened accordingly.
Supply increase. In 2023, global lithium carbonate production capacity is
rapidly expanding. According to statistics, the global production of lithium
carbonate in 2023 was approximately 560000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%.
Among them, China's production is about 300000 tons, an increase of 80%
year-on-year. The increase in supply leads to changes in the market supply and
demand pattern.
Policy factors. In November 2023, the Chinese government announced that it
would downgrade its subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. This policy has had
a certain impact on the new energy vehicle industry and also suppressed the
demand for lithium carbonate.
Future prospects
Looking ahead to the future, there is still room for a downward trend in
lithium carbonate futures prices. The main reason is:
Demand will still be weak. In 2024, the sales growth rate of new energy
vehicles is expected to continue to slow down. According to the prediction of
the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of new energy
vehicles will reach 5 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%.
This growth rate is lower than 53% in 2023 and 156% in 2022.
Supply will continue to increase. In 2024, global lithium carbonate
production capacity will continue to grow. According to statistics, the global
lithium carbonate production capacity plan for 2024 is about 720000 tons, a
year-on-year increase of 28%.
Macroeconomic downward pressure. In 2024, the global macroeconomy will face
downward pressure, which will also have a certain impact on the new energy
vehicle industry.
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